Impacts of EU Sanctions Levied in 2014 on Individual European Countries' Exports to Russia

Winners and Losers

authored by: Morad Bali, Thanh T. Nguyen, Lincoln F. Pratson
Abstract: We analyse the effects of sanctions implemented by the European Union against Russia following the latter’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Indirect effects of sanctions on its non-prohibited exports to Russia are examined using a gravity model of trade that includes a time varying sanction index. A per country analysis is also incorporated to increase the granularity of the results. We find that sanctions led to a decrease in exports of non-prohibited products from certain European countries (i.e., the “losers”) while increasing such exports from others (i.e., the “winners”), an outcome that qualifies as an “unintended consequence” of the sanctions.
Organisation(s): Faculty of Economics and Management
External Organisation(s): Duke University
Type: Article
Journal: Eastern Economic Journal
Volume: 50
Pages: 154-194
No. of pages: 41
ISSN: 0094-5056
Publication date: 04.2024
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: Economics and Econometrics
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.1057/s41302-024-00266-5 (Access: Closed)

BibTeX

@article{c5698c713cea4002b3fada769f81651d,
title = "Impacts of EU Sanctions Levied in 2014 on Individual European Countries' Exports to Russia: Winners and Losers",
abstract = "We analyse the effects of sanctions implemented by the European Union against Russia following the latter{\textquoteright}s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Indirect effects of sanctions on its non-prohibited exports to Russia are examined using a gravity model of trade that includes a time varying sanction index. A per country analysis is also incorporated to increase the granularity of the results. We find that sanctions led to a decrease in exports of non-prohibited products from certain European countries (i.e., the “losers”) while increasing such exports from others (i.e., the “winners”), an outcome that qualifies as an “unintended consequence” of the sanctions.",
keywords = "C1, C51, Economic sanctions, European union, F, Gravity model, Russia, Sanction index",
author = "Morad Bali and Nguyen, {Thanh T.} and Pratson, {Lincoln F.}",
note = "Funding Information: This work was supported in part by U.S. Department of Defense Minerva Program Grant No. FA9550-21-1-0156. The funding source is not involved in study design, collection, analysis and interpretation of the data, writing report and decision to submit the article for publication. ",
year = "2024",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1057/s41302-024-00266-5",
language = "English",
volume = "50",
pages = "154--194",
journal = "Eastern Economic Journal",
issn = "0094-5056",
publisher = "Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.",
number = "2",
}