Evidence and determinants of rural crime victimization in Tanzania

authored by: Ulrike Grote, Gregor Mager, Anja Faße, Frank Neubacher, Luitfred Kissoly
Abstract: Rural crime victimization, especially in form of theft, is a serious problem in rural areas in Sub Saharan Africa as it may undermine their sustainable development. Using the case of Tanzania, we investigate the evidence of crime and analyze the factors which determine victimization. Based on a panel dataset of 786 households from rural Tanzania, we find relatively high victimization rates of 37 % and 47 % in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The random-effects and pooled logit models reveal that living in a rural region with high levels of unemployment is positively correlated with the likelihood of victimization. Moreover, exposure to weather shocks such as floods is positively associated with the likelihood of being affected by crime. We conclude that rural crime victimization requires attention due to its high incidence in Tanzania. Improving job opportunities especially for the youth in rural Tanzania is expected to reduce the likelihood of victimization. Guardianship should be encouraged, especially during times of weather shocks.
Organisation(s): Institute of Environmental Economics and World Trade
External Organisation(s): University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan-Triesdorf
University of Cologne
Ardhi University (ARU)
Type: Article
Journal: World development
Volume: 187
No. of pages: 12
ISSN: 0305-750X
Publication date: 03.2025
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: Geography, Planning and Development, Development, Sociology and Political Science, Economics and Econometrics
Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth, SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106854 (Access: Open)

BibTeX

@article{d7dbfe39dfa84adfbfe4985f20698fc3,
title = "Evidence and determinants of rural crime victimization in Tanzania",
abstract = "Rural crime victimization, especially in form of theft, is a serious problem in rural areas in Sub Saharan Africa as it may undermine their sustainable development. Using the case of Tanzania, we investigate the evidence of crime and analyze the factors which determine victimization. Based on a panel dataset of 786 households from rural Tanzania, we find relatively high victimization rates of 37 % and 47 % in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The random-effects and pooled logit models reveal that living in a rural region with high levels of unemployment is positively correlated with the likelihood of victimization. Moreover, exposure to weather shocks such as floods is positively associated with the likelihood of being affected by crime. We conclude that rural crime victimization requires attention due to its high incidence in Tanzania. Improving job opportunities especially for the youth in rural Tanzania is expected to reduce the likelihood of victimization. Guardianship should be encouraged, especially during times of weather shocks.",
keywords = "Logit model, Routine activity approach, Rural crime, Tanzania, Theft victimization",
author = "Ulrike Grote and Gregor Mager and Anja Fa{\ss}e and Frank Neubacher and Luitfred Kissoly",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 The Authors",
year = "2025",
month = mar,
doi = "10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106854",
language = "English",
volume = "187",
journal = "World development",
issn = "0305-750X",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",
}