Consumers' macroeconomic expectations

verfasst von
Lena Dräger, Michael J. Lamla
Abstract

After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers' expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We, thus, survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices.

Organisationseinheit(en)
Institut für Geld und Internationale Finanzwirtschaft
Externe Organisation(en)
Münchener Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wirtschaftswissenschaft - CESifo GmbH
Universität Duisburg-Essen
ETH Zürich
Typ
Artikel
Journal
Journal of Economic Surveys
Band
38
Seiten
427-451
Anzahl der Seiten
25
ISSN
0950-0804
Publikationsdatum
07.03.2024
Publikationsstatus
Veröffentlicht
Peer-reviewed
Ja
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie
Elektronische Version(en)
https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12590 (Zugang: Offen)
https://doi.org/10.15488/16126 (Zugang: Offen)